{"id":7590,"date":"2018-02-27T10:17:23","date_gmt":"2018-02-27T06:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mediazona.az\/?p=7590"},"modified":"2018-02-27T10:17:23","modified_gmt":"2018-02-27T06:17:23","slug":"dunyanin-n%c9%99h%c9%99ng-neft-olk%c9%99l%c9%99ri-toqqusur-rusiya-v%c9%99-s%c9%99udiyy%c9%99-abs-a-qarsi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/?p=7590","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnyan\u0131n n\u0259h\u0259ng neft \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri toqqu\u015fur: Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 AB\u015e-a qar\u015f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Elnur Sultanov: “Onlar\u0131n \u0259lind\u0259ki \u0259sas silah…”<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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“Economist” yaz\u0131r ki, OPEC bundan sonra neft bazar\u0131 v\u0259 oradak\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri t\u0259kba\u015f\u0131na t\u0259nziml\u0259y\u0259 bilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yini ba\u015fa d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcy\u00fcnd\u0259n bu kartel\u0259 daxil olmayan daha 10 d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259 ittifaq yaratma\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr. Bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131nda \u0259n \u00f6n\u0259mlisi Rusiyad\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r bu plan ba\u015f tutarsa, kartelin son onillikl\u0259rd\u0259 ir\u0259li s\u00fcrd\u00fcy\u00fc \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck ambisiya olacaq.<\/p>\n

OPEC-in rotasiyal\u0131 prezidenti S\u00fcheyl \u0259l-Mazruey deyib ki, m\u0259qs\u0259d “superqrupun” yarad\u0131lmas\u0131 deyil.<\/p>\n

Amma n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 u\u011furlu olaca\u011f\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131 olmayaraq, m\u0259qs\u0259d he\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259siz qeyri-Amerika neft hasilat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fist inqilab\u0131 qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fccs\u00fcz olduqlar\u0131na dair oturu\u015fmu\u015f inanc\u0131 s\u0131nd\u0131rmaqd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2017-ci ilin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Texas neftinin bazar\u0131 doldurmas\u0131 bu inanc\u0131 daha da m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259ndirib. Neft t\u0259hlil\u00e7il\u0259ri deyirl\u0259r ki, bu il Amerika neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259cml\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 iki b\u00f6y\u00fck hasilat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131 – S\u0259udiyy\u0259ni v\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131 gerid\u0259 qoya bil\u0259r. S\u0259udiyy\u0259 q\u0259ti \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 inan\u0131r ki, Amerika 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 neft superliqas\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259m qoymaqla neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini \u00e7\u00f6kd\u00fcr\u00fcb.<\/p>\n

\"OPEC<\/p>\n

“Economist”in m\u0259qal\u0259sind\u0259 bildirilir ki, \u015fist neftinin dir\u00e7\u0259li\u015fi OPEC, Rusiya v\u0259 ba\u015fqa hasilat\u00e7\u0131lar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox h\u0259ssas bir zamanda ba\u015f verir. Ax\u0131 onlar son 14 ayda neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini qald\u0131ra bilibl\u0259r. OPEC v\u0259 Rusiya neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin qald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 namin\u0259 hasilat\u0131n ixtisar\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 sazi\u015f\u0259 giribl\u0259r. C\u0259nab Mazruey deyir ki, bu sazi\u015fd\u0259n “\u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f strategiyas\u0131” yoxdur.<\/p>\n

“Economist”in m\u0259qal\u0259sind\u0259 o da bildirilir ki, S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131 v\u0259 Rusiya aras\u0131nda m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rin dinamikas\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Bel\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, onlar bir vaxtlar az qala d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259n\u00e7ilikl\u0259 h\u0259ms\u0259rh\u0259d olan qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ql\u0131 etimads\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 qoya bilibl\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Kral Salman oktyabr ay\u0131nda ilk d\u0259f\u0259 olaraq Moskvaya s\u0259f\u0259r edib. Bu iki \u00f6lk\u0259nin neft nazirl\u0259ri bir-biril\u0259rin\u0259 tez-tez qonaq gedirl\u0259r. Bundan ba\u015fqa, bu iki \u00f6lk\u0259 bir-birinin neft s\u0259nayel\u0259rin\u0259 misli g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u0259mi\u015f investisiyalar yat\u0131rma\u011f\u0131 m\u00fczakir\u0259 edirl\u0259r. Rusiyan\u0131n d\u00f6vl\u0259t ehtiyat fondu “Aramco”nun sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan s\u0259hml\u0259r almaq niyy\u0259tind\u0259dir. “Aramco” is\u0259 \u00f6z n\u00f6vb\u0259sind\u0259 Rusiya Arktikas\u0131ndak\u0131 maye qaz layih\u0259sind\u0259 paya malik olmaq ist\u0259yir.<\/p>\n

\"OPEC<\/p>\n

Neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini y\u00fcks\u0259k saxlamaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 iki \u00f6lk\u0259 aras\u0131nda uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcnl\u00fcy\u00fc m\u00fcdafi\u0259 xarakteri da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. Onlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259n he\u00e7 d\u0259 t\u0259kc\u0259 Amerika neftinin art\u0131m\u0131 deyil. Qar\u015f\u0131dan g\u0259l\u0259n onillikl\u0259rd\u0259 neft\u0259 olan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n yava\u015f-yava\u015f t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl\u0259 ged\u0259c\u0259yi v\u0259 neftin \u00f6z yerini daha t\u0259miz enerji n\u00f6vl\u0259rin\u0259 ver\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nir.<\/p>\n

Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 iri neft hasilat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 xammal qiym\u0259td\u0259n tam d\u00fc\u015f\u0259n\u0259d\u0259k onu sat\u0131b qurtarma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Bel\u0259 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n ixtisar\u0131 Riyad v\u0259 Moskva aras\u0131nda r\u0259qab\u0259ti, bu iki \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyatlar\u0131n\u0131 neft as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131xaranad\u0259k t\u0259xir\u0259 salmaq dem\u0259kdir.<\/p>\n

“Economist” yaz\u0131r ki, bel\u0259 strategiyan\u0131n f\u0259lak\u0259tl\u0259ri onun m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259tind\u0259n \u00e7ox ola bil\u0259r. \u018fg\u0259r Moskva-Riyad ittifaq\u0131 i\u015fl\u0259s\u0259 v\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tini 70 dollardan yuxar\u0131 qald\u0131rsa, onda bazar d\u0259rhal Amerika, \u00fcst\u0259lik, Braziliya nefti il\u0259 dolacaq.<\/p>\n

Neft t\u0259hlil\u00e7il\u0259ri tarixin t\u0259krar olunmas\u0131 riski dey\u0259nd\u0259, el\u0259 bunu n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tuturlar. Odur ki, OPEC v\u0259 qeyri-OPEC \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri neft qiym\u0259tini d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259n qoruduqlar\u0131 kimi, artmaqdan da qorumal\u0131 olacaqlar. \u018fg\u0259r qiym\u0259tl\u0259r d\u00fc\u015fs\u0259, bu \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r hasilat\u0131 bir az da ixtisar etm\u0259li olacaqlar. Bu y\u00fck\u00fc, ad\u0259t\u0259n, \u00f6z \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcb, lakin bundan sonra da u\u011fur qazan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn y\u00fck\u00fcn alt\u0131na Rusiyan\u0131n da girm\u0259si laz\u0131m olacaq (BBC).<\/p>\n

\"Elnur<\/p>\n

ADA Universitetinin X\u0259z\u0259r Enerji v\u0259 \u018ftraf M\u00fchit M\u0259rk\u0259zinin direktoru Elnur Sultanov m\u00f6vzunu “Yeni M\u00fcsavat”a \u015f\u0259rh ed\u0259rk\u0259n deyib ki, 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 amerikal\u0131lar bazar\u0131 doldurduqdan sonra neftin qiym\u0259ti d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flayanda S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131 hesab el\u0259di ki, qiym\u0259t d\u00fc\u015fs\u0259, \u015fi\u015ft neftini bazardan \u00e7\u0131xara bil\u0259c\u0259k:\u00a0“\u015ei\u015ft neftin maya d\u0259y\u0259ri \u00e7ox y\u00fcks\u0259kdi – haradasa 40 dollar idi. S\u0259udiyy\u0259 neftinin maya d\u0259y\u0259ri is\u0259 10 dollar\u0131n alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 \u018fr-Riyad hesab el\u0259di ki, qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 \u015f\u0259rait yarad\u0131lsa, Amerikada istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar istehsal\u0131 azaldacaq, \u00e7oxusu da bazar\u0131 t\u0259rk ed\u0259c\u0259k. S\u0259udiyy\u0259 kimi, Rusiya da bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnc\u0259d\u0259ydi. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 h\u0259n OPEK, h\u0259m d\u0259 Rusiya istehsal\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Lakin n\u0259tic\u0259 onlar\u0131n g\u00f6zl\u0259diyi kimi olmad\u0131. \u015ei\u015ft istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 yeni texnologiyalar t\u0259tbiq ed\u0259r\u0259k maya d\u0259y\u0259rini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131lar. Y\u0259ni \u00e7ox az qisim oyun\u00e7u bazardan \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131. Qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131na ciddi z\u0259r\u0259r vurdu. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 onlar y\u0131\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131b bel\u0259 q\u0259rara g\u0259ldil\u0259r ki, istehsal\u0131 azaltmaqla qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259sin\u0259 nail olsunlar. T\u0259xmin\u0259n hesablad\u0131lar ki, bazarda g\u00fcnd\u0259lik 2 milyon ton art\u0131q neft var, onu y\u0131\u011f\u0131\u015fd\u0131rsalar, qiym\u0259tl\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k”.<\/p>\n

Ekspertin s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259r d\u0259 OPEK daxilind\u0259 hasilat\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131na dair q\u0259rarlar q\u0259bul olunub, lakin ona \u0259m\u0259l edilm\u0259mi\u015fdi:\u00a0“Lakin OPEK+ q\u0259rar\u0131 el\u0259 bir zamanda al\u0131nd\u0131 ki, \u0259n\u0259n\u0259vi bazar i\u015ftirak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 b\u00f6y\u00fck z\u0259r\u0259rl\u0259r g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcl\u0259r. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 h\u0259m OPEK, h\u0259m d\u0259 qeyri-OPEK \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri q\u0259rara \u0259m\u0259l etdil\u0259r, bazardan g\u00fcnd\u0259lik olaraq 1,5 milyon tonad\u0259k neft \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131ld\u0131, n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259r 60-70 dollar civar\u0131nad\u0259k y\u00fcks\u0259ldi. Bu y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131n \u015fi\u015ft neft hasilat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 istehsala daha da ruhland\u0131rd\u0131. Son 5 h\u0259ft\u0259 \u0259rzind\u0259 onlar hasilat\u0131 b\u00f6y\u00fck s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131blar, yaln\u0131z \u00f6t\u0259n h\u0259ft\u0259 art\u0131m qeyd\u0259 al\u0131nmay\u0131b. Y\u0259ni Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259nin hasilat\u0131 azald\u0131b qiym\u0259ti qald\u0131rmaq siyas\u0259ti bel\u0259 bir \u0259ks-effekt verib”.<\/p>\n

E.Sultanovun fikrinc\u0259, bundan sonra bazardak\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t bir ne\u00e7\u0259 amilin t\u0259sirind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olacaq:\u00a0“Hasilat\u0131n azald\u0131l\u0131b, qiym\u0259tin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 siyas\u0259tin\u0259 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k iki amil var. Birincisi, Amerikada \u015fi\u015ft istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259k qiym\u0259t\u0259 reaksiyas\u0131d\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r onlar hasilat\u0131 indiki s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 art\u0131rma\u011fa davam ets\u0259l\u0259r, onda Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131 da m\u0259cbur olacaqlar hasilat\u0131 art\u0131rma\u011fa. \u00c7\u00fcnki onlar hasilat\u0131 azaltma\u011fa davam ets\u0259l\u0259r, bazar pay\u0131n\u0131 itir\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r, bunu is\u0259 q\u0259tiyy\u0259n ist\u0259mirl\u0259r. Yox, \u0259g\u0259r AB\u015e-da hasilat\u0131n art\u0131m s\u00fcr\u0259ti azalsa, kvota v\u0259 m\u00f6vcud qiym\u0259tl\u0259r qalacaq”.<\/p>\n

Ekspert hesab edir ki, Rusiyadak\u0131 se\u00e7kil\u0259rd\u0259n sonra bazarda v\u0259ziyy\u0259tin g\u0259rginl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si ehtimal\u0131 da n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r:”Ola bilsin ki, se\u00e7kil\u0259rd\u0259n sonra Putin yenid\u0259n Amerika il\u0259 ticar\u0259t m\u00fcharib\u0259sin\u0259 ba\u015flamaq q\u0259rar\u0131na g\u0259lsin. Amma d\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc deyim ki, bundan hans\u0131sa ciddi n\u0259tic\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 olunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259mir\u0259m. \u00c7\u00fcnki bunlar\u0131n \u0259lind\u0259ki yegan\u0259 silah hasilatd\u0131r. Onu art\u0131r\u0131b bazar\u0131 doldursalar, qiym\u0259tl\u0259r s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259k. Bundan is\u0259 AB\u015e d\u00f6vl\u0259t olaraq he\u00e7 n\u0259 itirm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. \u018fksin\u0259, m\u0259n dey\u0259rdim ki, qazanacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki orada nefti hasil ed\u0259n \u00f6z\u0259l \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rdir, z\u0259r\u0259r d\u0259ys\u0259, onlara d\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. D\u00f6vl\u0259t\u0259 g\u0259linc\u0259, neftsiz olduqda iqtisadiyyat daha yax\u015f\u0131 inki\u015faf edir. Bu bax\u0131mdan, AB\u015e d\u00f6vl\u0259ti itirm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259d\u0259 nefti \u00e7\u0131xaran d\u00f6vl\u0259tdir – qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si d\u00f6vl\u0259tin g\u0259lirl\u0259rini k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 azaldacaq. N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq ki, h\u0259r iki \u00f6lk\u0259nin iqtisadiyyat\u0131-g\u0259lirl\u0259ri neftin \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qurulub, onda h\u0259r iki d\u00f6vl\u0259tin qiym\u0259t ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131ndan ciddi z\u0259r\u0259r g\u00f6r\u0259c\u0259yini s\u00f6yl\u0259m\u0259k olar. Uza\u011fa getm\u0259y\u0259k, 2014-2016-c\u0131 ill\u0259rd\u0259 bunun \u015fahidi olduq”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Elnur Sultanov: “Onlar\u0131n \u0259lind\u0259ki \u0259sas silah…” “Economist” yaz\u0131r ki, OPEC bundan sonra neft bazar\u0131 v\u0259 oradak\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri t\u0259kba\u015f\u0131na t\u0259nziml\u0259y\u0259 bilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yini ba\u015fa d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcy\u00fcnd\u0259n bu kartel\u0259 daxil olmayan daha 10 d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259 ittifaq…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7591,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,24,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-manset","category-siyast","category-xbr-xtti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7590"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7592,"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7590\/revisions\/7592"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mediazona.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}